Leading Innovation for Energy Transition IEEE


Tutorial T2 (Full day)

Probabilistic methods for power system management: state of the art, challenges and perspectives


  • Andrea Pitto, Ricerca sul Sistema Energetico – RSE S.p.A.,andrea.pitto@rse-web.it
  • Emanuele Ciapessoni, Ricerca sul Sistema Energetico – RSE S.p.A.,emanuele.ciapessoni@rse-web.it
  • Pierre Henneaux, Universit√© libre de Bruxelles, Pierre.Henneaux@ulb.ac.be
  • Aydogan Ozdemir, Istanbul Technical University, ozdemiraydo@itu.edu.tr
  • Ricardo Jorge Bessa, INESC TEC,ricardo.j.bessa@inesctec.pt
  • Louis Wehenkel, Efthymios Karangelos


The increasing uncertainties in power systems due to the growing penetration of renewables and to market mechanisms as well as the increasing frequency of extreme weather events due to climate changes are major drivers for the application of probabilistic methods in a broad spectrum of activities aiming to assure the continuous operation of power systems: from long-term system development, through mid-term asset management towards short-term operational planning and real-time operation.
The tutorial presents an overview of state-of-art probabilistic methods for the planning and the operation of both transmission and distribution systems, taking into account the uncertainties due to growing penetration of renewables (which need accurate probabilistic modeling for decision-aid problems under risk) as well as the occurrence of extreme contingencies triggered by natural threats. The drawbacks and the limits of conventional methods are discussed and the results of case studies on real world systems are described. After demonstrating the need for probabilistic methods, the tutorial highlights the current barriers for uncertainty modeling in current decision-aid problems under risk and for a practical implementation of these probabilistic risk based approaches in control center environment.


08:30-09:00 Registration
09:00-10:30 Introduction (Emanuele Ciapessoni)
Probabilistic reliability analysis for transmission planning
 (Pierre Henneaux)
Reliability evaluation of active distribution systems (Aydogan Ozdemir)
10:30-10:45 Coffee break
10:45-12:15 Probabilistic methods for risk-based power system operation (Andrea Pitto)
12:15-12:30 Questions and Answers (Emanuele Ciapessoni)
12:30-13:30 Light lunch
13:30-15:00 Probabilistic forecasting of renewable energy in decision aid problems under risk (Ricardo Jorge Bessa)
15:00-15:15 Coffee break
15:15-16:45 Challenges for the practical implementation of probabilistic risk-aware reliability management (Louis Wehenkel, Efthymios Karangelos)
16:45-17:00 Questions and Answers (Emanuele Ciapessoni)